Monday, 13 January 2014

Treasury promises to honour UK debts up to date of Scottish referendum


Statement is intended to calm anxieties about risk that Scotland could refuse to pay share of debt in quarrel over sterling


The Treasury will promise to honour all UK debts up to the date of Scotland's independence referendum in an effort to reassure investors and stop interest rates rising.


The Treasury statement, issued on Monday morning, is designed to head off anxieties about the risks that an independent Scotland could refuse to pay its share of the UK's £1.4tn debt mountain in a quarrel over sharing sterling.


Alex Salmond, the first minister, has repeatedly linked post-referendum negotiations on sharing the UK's debt with his demands for a new sterling currency union, warning that without a deal on sterling, Scotland might refuse to pay its share of historic UK debt.


The first minister has said an independent Scottish government would service its share of UK debts in a legal agreement with the Treasury as long as a future UK government accepted that Scotland had a right to continue using sterling and a fair share of other UK assets.


Treasury ministers fear those threats will make government borrowing before the referendum more expensive, and Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor, said on Monday that they could force up interest rates, mortgages and borrowing for businesses and consumers.


Treasury officials said they and the UK's Debt Management Office had been approached by investors seeking reassurances about the status of UK gilts because of the referendum.


The markets are not, however, showing signs of significant anxieties about September's vote, because opinion polls are consistently showing support for independence at about a third of Scottish voters.


Its decision to offer a "cast-iron" guarantee could be seen to weaken the Treasury's hand in post-referendum negotiations, by appearing to cushion Scottish ministers from the risk of defaulting on their share of the debt.


The statement is expected to say the Treasury will "in all circumstances honour the contractual terms of the debt issued by the UK government".


However, one Treasury source argued that its pledge strengthened the UK government's hand by showing it was taking a responsible position, regardless of the outcome of post-referendum talks.


"We don't think it weakens our hand," said a Treasury source quoted in the FT. "If Scotland reneged on what it owed the rest of the UK, it would be an international pariah in the markets. The UK has a strong hand here."






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